风险感知、保险认知与养殖户肉鸡保险购买意愿 ——基于肉鸡主产区的实证分析

风险管理是现代农业经营中的重要问题，随着农业市场化程度的加深，肉鸡产业面临着多种风险来源的冲击。农业保险作为有效的现代风险管理工具，在保障产业可持续发展、减少农户家庭收入波动方面发挥了重要作用。基于行为金融理论，利用江苏、安徽、山东、河南和辽宁5个肉鸡主产区的调研数据，运用有序Logit模型，分析风险感知与保险认知对养殖户保险购买意愿的影响，探讨两者间的交互影响机制。结果表明，尽管66.43%的农户认为肉鸡养殖保险在风险管控中的必要性较强，但86.43%的农户对保险内容的了解程度不高，仅有20.71%的农户具有强烈的保险购买意愿。生产风险感知对养殖户的保险购买意愿有促进作用。保险认知中，农户对保险重要性认知程度对其保险购买意愿有促进作用；农户对保险内容的了解程度对其保险购买意愿具有显著的抑制作用，主要由于当前肉鸡保险产品设计不合理，保险内容与农户需求不匹配，保险理赔效果不佳，对保险内容了解程度越高反而会降低农户的购买意愿。风险感知和保险认知间存在交互影响，即风险感知对农户保险购买意愿的提高效果会随着对保险重要性认知程度的提高而增强，随着对保险内容了解程度的提高而减弱。因此，政府应加强农户的风险管理教育与培训，提高其风险管理意识，同时完善和优化当前肉鸡保险的内容，使之与农户需求相匹配，并通过更广泛的宣传来提高养殖户对于肉鸡保险的认知，从而增强农户对保险的购买意愿。     

Prevention and Controlling Effect of Intercropping on Pests and Diseases and Its Risk Control in Cotton Fields

Cotton is one of the major field crops which are seriously threatened by pests and diseases. In recent years, the ecological management of cotton pests and diseases with intercropping has become to be an interesting approach. Intercropping possibly increases the population of natural enemies and finally reduces the population density of pests as a result of changes in ecological structure and environmental conditions of farmland. Intercropping thus has been considered an important alternative in controlling pests and diseases. However, cotton field intercropping also has some limitations in controlling pests and diseases. Unreasonable intercropping system has many risks such as increasing labor input, increasing the difficulty of pests’ control, and aggravating pests and diseases. In this paper, the effects and the underlying mechanisms of cotton intercropping on cotton pests and diseases were reviewed. The possible risks and countermeasures used for ecological control of intercropping were also put forward, and the future and application of ecological management of cotton pests and diseases with intercropping were prospected.     

池州市某矿地质灾害危险性评估

以池州市某矿为例,结合矿山的基本地质环境条件对评估区的地质灾害的现状进行了评估。同时对评估区因建设工程活动可能引发、加剧及自身已存在地质灾害进行了预测,并结合灾害类型给出了相应的防治措施。结果表明:评估区的地质灾害危险性评估级别为一级评估;评估区的建设用地适宜性评价为适宜。     

三唑酰草胺在不同类型土壤中的降解特性

为科学评价除草剂三唑酰草胺在土壤环境中的生态风险，采用室内模拟方法，研究了三唑酰草胺在吉林黑土、江西红土和安徽水稻土中的降解特性。结果表明:三唑酰草胺在土壤中的降解符合一级动力学方程。好氧条件下三唑酰草胺在3种土壤中的降解半衰期分别为86.5、106和91.4 d；厌氧条件下半衰期分别为106、130和127 d；水稻田厌氧条件下半衰期分别为162、219和188 d。研究表明，三唑酰草胺在水稻田厌氧条件下的降解速率明显慢于其他2种试验条件下。     

Eco‐efficiency as a strategy for optimizing the sustainability of pest management

Agricultural industrialization and the subsequent reliance on pesticides has resulted in numerous unintended consequences, such as impacts upon the environment and by extension human health. Eco‐efficiency is a strategy for sustainably increasing production, while simultaneously decreasing these externalities on ecological systems. Eco‐efficiency is defined as the ratio of production to environmental impacts. It has been widely adopted to improve chemical production, but we investigate the challenges of applying eco‐efficiency to pesticide use. Eco‐efficiency strategies include technological innovation, investment in research and development, improvement of business processes, and accounting for market forces. These components are often part of integrated pest management (IPM) systems that include alternatives to pesticides, but its implementation is often thwarted by commercial realities and technical challenges. We propose the creation and adoption of an eco‐efficiency index for pesticide use so that the broad benefits of eco‐efficient strategies such as IPM can be more readily quantified. We propose an index based upon the ratio of crop yield to a risk quotient (RQ) calculated from pesticide toxicity. Eco‐efficiency is an operational basis for optimizing pest management for sustainability. It naturally favors adoption of IPM and should be considered by regulators, researchers, and practitioners involved in pest management. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry     

四种重要实蝇类害虫对福建省造成的经济损失评估

实蝇类害虫是世界性检疫害虫，对福建省农作物造成为害的主要包含橘小实蝇、南亚寡鬃实蝇、瓜实蝇、具条实蝇4种。这4种实蝇类害虫给福建省水果、蔬菜带来较为严重的经济损失，并且由于防治过程中农药的使用，造成生态环境问题。本研究选取实蝇类害虫为害较为严重的福建省主要水果和蔬菜作为研究对象，从直接经济损失、防治费用和间接经济损失3个层面建立评估模型，并对2016年4种实蝇类害虫造成的经济损失进行评估，旨在通过评估经济损失情况，为今后防治政策的制定提供思路。研究结果显示，这4种实蝇类害虫对福建省造成的经济损失约为313.48亿元，其中直接经济损失约为221.74亿元，防治费用约为84.24亿元，间接经济损失约为7.5亿元。最后，本研究提出了重视有害生物灾情评估、完善经济损失评价方法，开展农户专业培训、提升防控技术水平，加强环境规制力度、发展绿色生态农业等政策建议。     

饲草作物对土壤健康与农业可持续发展的作用

饲草作物是指为增加土壤肥力,防止土壤侵蚀,累积和保护土层,增加土壤养分和含水率以及提高土壤质量而种植的植物。饲草作物为农田土壤提供了诸多益处,其还有助于增加和维持土壤中的微生物多样性。本文对多种饲草作物对土壤特性的作用,如土壤含水量、土壤微生物的活动、土壤碳固存、土壤硝态氮淋失、土壤水分和土壤健康等进行综述。饲草作物的选择通常取决于其自身对土壤的作用,其他考虑因素还包括天气条件,播种时间,是否为豆科植物以及杀灭饲草作物的时间和方法。研究表明,饲草作物也可用于减缓气候变化,抑制作物中的杂草,增加可交换的营养物质如Mg2+和K+,具有一定的经济性。另外,覆盖作物也会存在一些问题,包括杀灭覆盖作物的方法,其可能成为病原体的寄主,饲草作物的再生性以及短期收益不明显。尽管有一些局限,饲草作物仍被认为可以明显改善土壤整体健康状况,为主栽作物提供可持续的生态环境。     

基于公共天气预报的三江平原ET0预报模型比较及敏感性分析

为了提出适合我国三江平原的高精度ET0预报方法,基于该区6个气象站点的天气预报数据和实测气象数据,以FAO56-Penman-Monteith(FAO56-PM)公式计算值为基准,比较Hargreaves-Samani(HS)、Thornthwaite(TH)和Blaney-Criddle(BC)3个ET₀预报模型的效果,对最优模型进行敏感性分析。结果表明:3个模型1~7 d预见期平均绝对误差均值分别为0.66、0.65、0.65 mm/d,均方根误差分别为0.93、0.96、0.95 mm/d,相关系数分别为0.857、0.828、0.840。1~5 d预见期最优预报模型为HS模型,6~7 d为TH模型。总体上预报精度由高到低为HS、TH、BC模型,建议采用HS模型在三江平原开展ET₀预报,HS模型预报对最高温预报的敏感性大于最低温。其预报值在夏季受温度预报误差影响最大,冬季最小,4季整体误差较小。研究可为灌溉预报提供较准确的数据基础。     

大学生吸烟现状及其干预对策分析--以民航相关专业学生为例

吸烟一直被认为对健康有害,但是吸烟人群越来越多,且呈年轻化趋势。民航相关专业学生对于从业体检要求较高,因此需要对吸烟带来的健康问题引起重视。综述了大学生吸烟现状,并以民航相关专业学生为例,分析了大学生产生吸烟行为的可能原因,并集合民航偏工科的属性,通过创新教育教法提出了干预对策。以助于减少大学生的吸烟行为,也希望引起学生对自身身体健康的重视。